more covid vaccine math
Sep. 23rd, 2023 11:49 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
izardIn the previous post I was basing my calculation on a shaky assumption that CDC provides the correct numbers in our best interest. What if it doesn't?
Here are the calculations that I trust more:
If I chose not to vaccinate my teen son, the probability of heart inflammation from covid is 0.05X multiplied by (probability of getting covid) multiplied by (vaccine effectiveness in preventing covid).
0.05X*0.01*0.2=0.0001X
If I chose to vaccinate my teen son the probability of heart inflammation is
X+0.05X*0.01*0.8=1.0004X
Final difference being 10000X in favor of not vaccinating. May be that is why European countries do not recommend to vaccinate children, unless they have a condition that makes their odds of covid complication very grim.
Here are the calculations that I trust more:
If I chose not to vaccinate my teen son, the probability of heart inflammation from covid is 0.05X multiplied by (probability of getting covid) multiplied by (vaccine effectiveness in preventing covid).
0.05X*0.01*0.2=0.0001X
If I chose to vaccinate my teen son the probability of heart inflammation is
X+0.05X*0.01*0.8=1.0004X
Final difference being 10000X in favor of not vaccinating. May be that is why European countries do not recommend to vaccinate children, unless they have a condition that makes their odds of covid complication very grim.
no subject
Date: 2023-09-24 05:59 am (UTC)