izard

Just got back from vacation, where we drove through 7 counties: Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Italy, Monaco and France. 11 hours one way not accounting for traffic jams, and it took us 12 and 16 hours in real life.

On our way back, I rented a Chalet in an Italian high mountain camping village called "Ёлки-Палки". It was great overall, but there was a small nuisance in one of the rooms: just before our arrival, a butterfly laid eggs on a top level of a bunk bed, they hatched during the night, so thousands of tiny caterpillars went on a quest to find some fresh leaves for dinner. Caterpillars started descending towards my lower bed using their threads. This is how nature works, but Julia was scared first.

One of the hosts spoke adequate English, but I did not expect him to know the word "caterpillar". So, I had to find words in Italian, and came up with "thousands of small caterpillars in the room" - "мияйя ди пикколи брукки нелла камера"

As always, flu got me over the weekend. So I could hardly sleep with 39C+ fever, and could not help but use the time to write a dark sci-fi short text, heavily influenced by Isaac Asimov and Pavel Ievlev.
Please see under a cut.
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Recent (end of 2024!!) social media discussion:

Someone: I won't do covid-19 boosters, they cause myocarditis. 3 upvotes, 8 downvotes.

Pro-vaxer: Here is a link to a study proving that covid-19 vaccine causes myocarditis, but covid-19 causes myocarditis more often.
15 upvotes, no downvotes.

Me: Could you please explain why you claim that this study proves that "covid-19 vaccine causes myocarditis, but covid-19 causes myocarditis more often", while the study does not explore frequency of myocarditis after covid-19 and after the vaccine at all? All the study does is demonstrating that post-vaccine myocarditis is less harmful than post-covid19 one.
6 downvotes, no upvotes.

Pro-vaxer: Oh, sometimes stupid antivaxers even read the linked studies! But they can't comprehend what they read, this is the problem. You see, even the abstract says: "Patients with post–COVID-19 mRNA vaccination myocarditis, contrary to those with post–COVID-19 myocarditis, show a lower frequency of cardiovascular complications than those with conventional myocarditis at 18 months."
You probably just read a part of the summary, which says "Post-vaccination myocarditis after vaccination with anti-COVID vaccines has a milder course and a lower risk of developing complications in the long term."
You think I made an error, but the error is all yours!
0 downvotes, 1 upvote

Me:
Let's think step by step:
1. From your first comment: "covid-19 vaccine causes myocarditis, but covid-19 causes myocarditis more often"
Let's assume P(A) the probability of getting myocarditis from the vaccine, and P(B) the probability of getting myocarditis from COVID.
So, your statement is P(A) < P(B).


2. From your second comment, the first quote from the abstract, which, in your opinion, I misunderstood. "Patients with post–COVID-19 mRNA vaccination myocarditis, contrary to those with post–COVID-19 myocarditis, show a lower frequency of cardiovascular complications than those with conventional myocarditis at 18 months." Please re-read it again. It says nothing at all about P(A) and P(B). All it says is that P(C|A) < P(C|B), where P(C) is the probability of cardiovascular complications 18 months after the diagnosis of myocarditis.
1 downvote, 0 upvotes, no responses so far.

The scary part is that Pro-vaxer is likely a doctor, based on his (or her) other comments. Confirmation bias maybe really tough.

Back in university, my friends and I had a trick when it came to exams in advanced physics and math courses: we’d try to sit exams with a postdoc or, better yet, a PhD student rather than a seasoned professor. Professors, with decades of experience, could gauge a student’s depth of understanding after just a few questions, accurately assigning grades. PhD students, however, lacked this refined intuition and often gave higher grades if you could converse confidently about basic concepts and demonstrate a good grasp of basic terminology. They usually tended to assume the best, consciously or subconsciously. The real test wasn’t the material itself, but skilfully steering the exam into a dialogue where you could shine.

So, why do I find myself reflecting on this old trick now? ( Read more... )

Интересно сравнить творчество трех самых плодовитых графоманов рунета. Если что, здесь я использую слово "графоман" отнюдь не как ругательное. Просто они очень любят писать, и публикуют в сети мегабайты и мегабайты своих художественных текстов.

Еще ограничу время. Да, в 90-е был "король графоманов" Петухов, а в 2000е - Иар Эльтеррус. Но здесь я напишу о 2010-х и 2020-х.
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Let's imagine, for a moment, that the late Soviet KGB was not simply a group of bureaucratic careerists, resembling characters from "Our Man in Havana." Instead, consider it as an omnipresent and possibly self proclaimed benevolent force that started working to counter the inevitable collapse of the Soviet Union.

They recognized that the traditional institutions, such as the Army, the Communist Party, the Police, and even the KGB itself, were all corroded and incapable of withstanding the impending collapse. However, they were well aware of how the Cultural Revolution in China and death squads in Latin America operated to alter the course of complex social dynamics.

It's widely believed that the "Kazan phenomenon" was inspired and/or guided by the KGB, which could explain why it took the police so many years to develop effective countermeasures. Additionally, the complex and effective social norms and language exhibited by these gangs could not have emerged overnight in Kazan, Naberezhnye Chelny, Cheboksary, and later Ulyanovsk. For such a grassroots movement, it would have taken years, if not decades, for these dynamics to flourish. I remember the rituals, language, written and unwritten social norms of the Soviet young pioneer organisation, and the gangs were comparable in complexity and far surpassing in pervasiveness.

But what if there was a long-term, intricate KGB operation to prepare a social cadre movement that could be used to counter the violence that would inevitably erupt during the Soviet Union's collapse? This theory could explain everything:

A whole generation of young males, starting as young as 10 or 12 years old, were placed in extreme settings and closely monitored by a hierarchy of higher-ups. This served as an effective HR sieve and a totalitarian indoctrination system simultaneously. In some districts, nearly 100% of males were recruited into the gangs (I take this opportunity to send regards to the "Психквадрат" and "Поселок"). The slight differences in gang organizations and traditions among the three main cities could be attributed to variations in the experimental parameters. Ultimately, instead of the late Soviet Union's formal "dossier," every male could have had a comprehensive psychological profile collected, identifying natural leaders, potential grey eminences, and obedient foot soldiers accurately.
By the way, I've always been intrigued by the size of the KGB building (and the apparent large number of personnel there) in the center of Cheboksary in the 1980s. It always seemed like an overkill for such a small city.

Hypothesis: Perhaps this intricate KGB operation didn't achieve its intended results because the collapse of the Soviet Union started just 1-2 years earlier than the KGB operation was nearing completion. The timing might have been a critical factor in the success or failure of this ambitious endeavor.

Как очевидец, который видел это все говно в те времена и в тех самых местах, хочу поделиться одной байкой.

В рамках гласности, была одна местная молодежная газетка из двух листков, которую издавали передовые комсомольцы. Уже даже не помню, как газета называлась. Издавалась она с 1989 до 1993, и стоила (сначала) две копейки.

И вот году так в девяностом, вышла в ней редакционная статья, в которой писали, что кое где у нас порой некоторые комсомольцы, а то и пионеры, ведут себя совсем не по-ленински, а отнимают деньги и одежду у детей, подражают уголовникам, и странно одеваются. Так делать нельзя, а если что, то обязательно надо обращаться в милицию - там помогут.

Но гласность уже набрала силу, поэтому в следующем номере опубликовали много писем читателей на эту тему. Мне запомнились два ответа - привожу близко к тексту (память хорошая), но не дословно.

1. Мы - настоящие пацаны. У нас крепкая мужская дружба, мы наоборот поддерживаем порядок и чистоту на районе. Готовимся к армии. Девочки гуляют только с нами, потому, что мы можем их защитить. Деньги мы не отнимаем, чушпаны нам добровольно немного подгоняют. Одежду не отнимаем - но можем уговорить поменяться, если человек не пацан, а носит пацанские вещи. Милиции не доверяем, они сами как бандиты себя ведут. Вася, 14 лет.
2. Пацаны такие классные - они ходят в широких штанах и крутых кепках (карандашный рисунок пацана в широких штанах и крутой кепке). Я дружу только с настоящими пацанами, а с чушпанами дружить не хочу. (Наивное стихотворение из четырех двустиший о том, как крутые пацаны в широких штанах идут по району, и их все уважают - потому, что они крутые) Таня, 12 лет.

ChatGPT 4.0 was so kind in helping to write this blog post according to its ethical alignment:

Caption: When Tough Decisions Are Made for the Greater Good: The Case of Children's COVID Vaccine
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Some may think that I am beating a dead horse here, but the horse isn't dead until there are still active covid vaccine mandates in the USA.

According to CDC director's recent public announcement
at 1:01. "teen boys have been up to 5 times as likely to have heart inflammation after having covid infection than after getting vaccinated". There are several peer reviewed publications that estimate this difference in this age group, and she selected the one which resulted in estimate of 2x-5x, and took the highest number.

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