Some more covid vaccine math

Some may think that I am beating a dead horse here, but the horse isn't dead until there are still active covid vaccine mandates in the USA.

According to CDC director's recent public announcement

at 1:01. "teen boys have been up to 5 times as likely to have heart inflammation after having covid infection than after getting vaccinated". There are several peer reviewed publications that estimate this difference in this age group, and she selected the one which resulted in estimate of 2x-5x, and took the highest number.

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more covid vaccine math

In the previous post I was basing my calculation on a shaky assumption that CDC provides the correct numbers in our best interest. What if it doesn't?

Here are the calculations that I trust more:

If I chose not to vaccinate my teen son, the probability of heart inflammation from covid is 0.05X multiplied by (probability of getting covid) multiplied by (vaccine effectiveness in preventing covid).
0.05X*0.01*0.2=0.0001X

If I chose to vaccinate my teen son the probability of heart inflammation is
X+0.05X*0.01*0.8=1.0004X

Final difference being 10000X in favor of not vaccinating. May be that is why European countries do not recommend to vaccinate children, unless they have a condition that makes their odds of covid complication very grim.

Final? vaccination rant

ChatGPT 4.0 was so kind in helping to write this blog post according to its ethical alignment:

Caption: When Tough Decisions Are Made for the Greater Good: The Case of Children's COVID Vaccine
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